tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Everett → Las Vegas via San Francisco: arrives on time 3%

  1. 19:16 PAE → 21:28 SFO
    AS 2248 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 12m · 13% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 31m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 22:59 SFO → 00:46 LAS +1 day
    UA 2839 · United · 1h 47m · 59% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection5%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 95% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 1h 31m layover.
Arrives on time3%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (5%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 30mPAE 19:16 to LAS 00:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.