tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Seattle via San Diego: arrives on time 15%

  1. 18:19 LAS → 19:36 SAN
    AS 2251 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 17m · 24% on time, 9.8% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 SAN → 23:41 SEA
    AS 1362 · Alaska · 3h 06m · 72% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection23%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 77% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (9.8% are) × connection made (23%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 22mLAS 18:19 to SEA 23:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.