tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → San Francisco via San Diego: arrives on time 6%

  1. 07:59 LAS → 09:15 SAN
    AS 2253 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 16m · 44% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:04 SAN → 11:49 SFO
    AS 3205 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 45m · 27% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection23%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 77% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time6%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (23%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (27%).
Total trip3h 50mLAS 07:59 to SFO 11:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.