tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Rosa → Seattle via San Diego: arrives on time 28%

  1. 17:56 STS → 19:35 SAN
    AS 2257 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 39m · 42% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 SAN → 23:41 SEA
    AS 1362 · Alaska · 3h 06m · 72% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 45mSTS 17:56 to SEA 23:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.