tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Rosa → Phoenix via San Diego: arrives on time 24%

  1. 17:56 STS → 19:35 SAN
    AS 2257 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 39m · 42% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 44m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:19 SAN → 22:39 PHX
    AS 2049 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 20m · 36% on time, 15.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection81%The first flight arrived more than 59 minutes late on 19% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 44m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (81%) × second flight not cancelled (15.4% are) and within 15 minutes (36%).
Total trip4h 43mSTS 17:56 to PHX 22:39, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.