tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Everett → San Francisco via Santa Ana: arrives on time 49%

  1. 07:57 PAE → 10:48 SNA
    AS 2270 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 51m · 87% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 18m layover in Santa Ana (SNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:06 SNA → 14:51 SFO
    AS 561 · Alaska · 1h 45m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 20 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 93 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 18m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip6h 54mPAE 07:57 to SFO 14:51, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.