tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Everett → San Francisco via Santa Ana: arrives on time 57%

  1. 07:57 PAE → 10:48 SNA
    AS 2270 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 51m · 87% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 28m layover in Santa Ana (SNA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 13:16 SNA → 14:58 SFO
    F9 3581 · Frontier · 1h 42m · 61% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 58 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 28m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip7h 01mPAE 07:57 to SFO 14:58, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.