tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Honolulu via San Diego: arrives on time 42%

  1. 14:38 LAS → 15:57 SAN
    AS 2282 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 19m · 32% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 19m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:16 SAN → 20:22 HNL
    AS 894 · Alaska · 6h 06m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 34 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 19m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip8h 44mLAS 14:38 to HNL 20:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.