tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Oakland via San Diego: arrives on time 13%

  1. 14:38 LAS → 15:57 SAN
    AS 2282 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 19m · 32% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:55 SAN → 18:33 OAK
    AS 2190 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 38m · 49% on time, 5.8% cancelled

Total trip 3h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection29%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 71% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (29%) × second flight not cancelled (5.8% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip3h 55mLAS 14:38 to OAK 18:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.