tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Barbara → San Francisco via Portland: arrives on time 27%

  1. 14:39 SBA → 16:49 PDX
    AS 2318 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 10m · 69% on time, 4.5% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:36 PDX → 19:30 SFO
    AS 504 · Alaska · 1h 54m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (4.5% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip4h 51mSBA 14:39 to SFO 19:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.