tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Barbara → Phoenix via Portland: arrives on time 53%

  1. 14:39 SBA → 16:49 PDX
    AS 2318 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 10m · 69% on time, 4.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:51 PDX → 20:37 PHX
    AS 746 · Alaska · 2h 46m · 78% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (4.5% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip5h 58mSBA 14:39 to PHX 20:37, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.