tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tulsa → Chicago via San Diego: arrives on time 41%

  1. 15:07 TUL → 16:15 SAN
    AS 2320 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 3h 08m · 49% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:23 SAN → 23:36 ORD
    AS 1493 · Alaska · 4h 13m · 70% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip8h 29mTUL 15:07 to ORD 23:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.