tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tulsa → Las Vegas via San Diego: arrives on time 27%

  1. 15:07 TUL → 16:15 SAN
    AS 2320 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 3h 08m · 49% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:15 SAN → 18:41 LAS
    AS 2018 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 26m · 59% on time, 4.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Tulsa). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 34mTUL 15:07 to LAS 18:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.