tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Rosa → Seattle via Portland: arrives on time 44%

  1. 19:03 STS → 20:36 PDX
    AS 2331 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 33m · 51% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 PDX → 22:27 SEA
    AS 2421 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 57m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip3h 24mSTS 19:03 to SEA 22:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.