tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → San Francisco via Portland: arrives on time 37%

  1. 19:17 SMF → 20:50 PDX
    AS 2335 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 33m · 67% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 PDX → 23:36 SFO
    AS 2112 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 51m · 64% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip4h 19mSMF 19:17 to SFO 23:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.