tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Redmond → San Francisco via San Diego: arrives on time 15%

  1. 13:05 RDM → 15:25 SAN
    AS 2415 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 20m · 77% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:14 SAN → 17:49 SFO
    AS 2314 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 35m · 28% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (28%).
Total trip4h 44mRDM 13:05 to SFO 17:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.