tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → San Francisco via San Diego: arrives on time 47%

  1. 11:11 LAS → 12:29 SAN
    AS 2416 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 18m · 65% on time, 4.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:30 SAN → 15:14 SFO
    AS 3352 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 44m · 74% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (4.7% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip4h 03mLAS 11:11 to SFO 15:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.