tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Fairbanks via Seattle: arrives on time 82%

  1. 21:30 PDX → 22:27 SEA
    AS 2421 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 57m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:27 SEA → 02:15 FAI +1 day
    AS 1512 · Alaska · 3h 48m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 1 h behind Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip5h 45mPDX 21:30 to FAI 02:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.