tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → New York via Seattle: arrives on time 60%

  1. 21:30 PDX → 22:27 SEA
    AS 2421 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 57m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:15 SEA → 07:38 JFK +1 day
    AS 22 · Alaska · 5h 23m · 81% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip7h 08mPDX 21:30 to JFK 07:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.