tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Nashville via Seattle: arrives on time 57%

  1. 21:30 PDX → 22:27 SEA
    AS 2421 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 57m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:15 SEA → 05:40 BNA +1 day
    AS 382 · Alaska · 4h 25m · 78% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip6h 10mPDX 21:30 to BNA 05:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.