Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Phoenix → Louisville via Newark: arrives on time 31%
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11:40 PHX → 19:35 EWRUA 1190 · United · 4h 55m · 67% on time, 1.4% cancelled
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50m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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20:25 EWR → 22:50 SDFUA 3512 · United, flown by Republic · 2h 25m · 56% on time, 13.5% cancelled
Total trip 8h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 33 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (13.5% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip8h 10mPHX 11:40 to SDF 22:50, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.