tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Madison via Denver: arrives on time 35%

  1. 17:12 EWR → 19:45 DEN
    UA 1197 · United · 4h 33m · 71% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:34 DEN → 23:59 MSN
    UA 5214 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 25m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip7h 47mEWR 17:12 to MSN 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.