tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Santa Ana via Denver: arrives on time 44%

  1. 17:12 EWR → 19:45 DEN
    UA 1197 · United · 4h 33m · 71% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:32 DEN → 22:01 SNA
    UA 725 · United · 2h 29m · 80% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip7h 49mEWR 17:12 to SNA 22:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.