tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Nashville via Newark: arrives on time 48%

  1. 18:33 RDU → 20:15 EWR
    UA 1205 · United · 1h 42m · 60% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:28 EWR → 23:02 BNA
    UA 1261 · United · 2h 34m · 71% on time, 4.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (4.6% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip5h 29mRDU 18:33 to BNA 23:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.