tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Detroit via Newark: arrives on time 45%

  1. 18:33 RDU → 20:15 EWR
    UA 1205 · United · 1h 42m · 60% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:22 EWR → 23:30 DTW
    UA 3412 · United, flown by Republic · 2h 09m · 75% on time, 9.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (9.6% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip4h 58mRDU 18:33 to DTW 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.