tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Las Vegas via Newark: arrives on time 24%

  1. 16:21 TPA → 19:10 EWR
    UA 1206 · United · 2h 49m · 52% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 EWR → 22:38 LAS
    UA 1800 · United · 5h 39m · 62% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 9h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip9h 17mTPA 16:21 to LAS 22:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.