tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Dayton via Chicago: arrives on time 80%

  1. 10:31 IAD → 11:53 ORD
    UA 1252 · United · 2h 22m · 92% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 07m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:00 ORD → 17:30 DAY
    UA 5810 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 30m · 84% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 142 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 07m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip6h 59mIAD 10:31 to DAY 17:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.