tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 15:30 DCA → 16:52 ORD
    UA 1325 · United · 2h 22m · 66% on time, 4.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:55 ORD → 19:23 STL
    UA 4412 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 28m · 56% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (4.7% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip4h 53mDCA 15:30 to STL 19:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.