Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Washington → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 44%
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15:30 DCA → 16:52 ORDUA 1325 · United · 2h 22m · 66% on time, 4.7% cancelled
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58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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17:50 ORD → 20:23 SDFUA 3598 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 33m · 77% on time, 4.0% cancelled
Total trip 4h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (4.7% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip4h 53mDCA 15:30 to SDF 20:23, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.