tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Buffalo via Dulles: arrives on time 57%

  1. 18:57 TPA → 21:30 IAD
    UA 1370 · United · 2h 33m · 78% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:26 IAD → 23:59 BUF
    UA 3516 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 33m · 84% on time, 9.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (9.5% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip5h 02mTPA 18:57 to BUF 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.