tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Hebron via Dulles: arrives on time 43%

  1. 18:57 TPA → 21:30 IAD
    UA 1370 · United · 2h 33m · 78% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:17 IAD → 23:59 CVG
    UA 3521 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 42m · 70% on time, 10.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (10.3% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip5h 02mTPA 18:57 to CVG 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.