tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Dayton via Chicago: arrives on time 25%

  1. 15:39 IAD → 17:02 ORD
    UA 1393 · United · 2h 23m · 64% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:51 ORD → 20:22 DAY
    UA 4484 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 31m · 59% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip4h 43mIAD 15:39 to DAY 20:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.