tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Manchester via Chicago: arrives on time 65%

  1. 15:39 IAD → 17:02 ORD
    UA 1393 · United · 2h 23m · 64% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 3h 09m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 20:11 ORD → 23:30 MHT
    AA 4149 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 31m · 84% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection83%The first flight arrived more than 99 minutes late on 17% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 09m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (83%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip8h 03mIAD 15:39 to MHT 23:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.