tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Norfolk via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 15:39 IAD → 17:02 ORD
    UA 1393 · United · 2h 23m · 64% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:15 ORD → 21:43 ORF
    UA 5686 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 28m · 46% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip6h 04mIAD 15:39 to ORF 21:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.