tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Buffalo via Chicago: arrives on time 42%

  1. 15:39 IAD → 17:02 ORD
    UA 1393 · United · 2h 23m · 64% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:17 ORD → 21:08 BUF
    UA 5763 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 51m · 62% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip5h 29mIAD 15:39 to BUF 21:08, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.