tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Harrisburg via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 15:39 IAD → 17:02 ORD
    UA 1393 · United · 2h 23m · 64% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:25 ORD → 21:29 MDT
    UA 1557 · United · 2h 04m · 60% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip5h 50mIAD 15:39 to MDT 21:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.