tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Richmond via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 15:39 IAD → 17:02 ORD
    UA 1393 · United · 2h 23m · 64% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:10 ORD → 21:27 RIC
    UA 1583 · United · 2h 17m · 66% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip5h 48mIAD 15:39 to RIC 21:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.