tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Nashville via Chicago: arrives on time 31%

  1. 15:39 IAD → 17:02 ORD
    UA 1393 · United · 2h 23m · 64% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:58 ORD → 19:44 BNA
    UA 2784 · United · 1h 46m · 63% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip5h 05mIAD 15:39 to BNA 19:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.