tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Tampa via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 15:39 IAD → 17:02 ORD
    UA 1393 · United · 2h 23m · 64% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:56 ORD → 21:49 TPA
    UA 2865 · United · 2h 53m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip6h 10mIAD 15:39 to TPA 21:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.