tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 15:39 IAD → 17:02 ORD
    UA 1393 · United · 2h 23m · 64% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:50 ORD → 20:23 SDF
    UA 3598 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 33m · 77% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip4h 44mIAD 15:39 to SDF 20:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.