tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Medford via San Francisco: arrives on time 39%

  1. 13:16 PHX → 15:19 SFO
    UA 1427 · United · 2h 03m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:22 SFO → 17:51 MFR
    UA 5706 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 29m · 70% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 35mPHX 13:16 to MFR 17:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.