tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Denver via San Francisco: arrives on time 33%

  1. 13:16 PHX → 15:19 SFO
    UA 1427 · United · 2h 03m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:10 SFO → 20:01 DEN
    UA 1430 · United · 2h 51m · 79% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip5h 45mPHX 13:16 to DEN 20:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.