Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Phoenix → Dulles via San Francisco: arrives on time 60%
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13:16 PHX → 15:19 SFOUA 1427 · United · 2h 03m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled
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1h 15m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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16:34 SFO → 00:55 IAD +1 dayUA 1453 · United · 5h 21m · 87% on time, 0.4% cancelled
Total trip 8h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip8h 39mPHX 13:16 to IAD 00:55, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.