tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Kansas City via San Francisco: arrives on time 32%

  1. 13:16 PHX → 15:19 SFO
    UA 1427 · United · 2h 03m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:29 SFO → 22:15 MCI
    UA 1515 · United · 3h 46m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip6h 59mPHX 13:16 to MCI 22:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.