tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Kahului via San Francisco: arrives on time 65%

  1. 13:16 PHX → 15:19 SFO
    UA 1427 · United · 2h 03m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 21m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:40 SFO → 19:17 OGG
    UA 1749 · United · 5h 37m · 90% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 9h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 36 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 21m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip9h 01mPHX 13:16 to OGG 19:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.