tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Newark via San Francisco: arrives on time 37%

  1. 13:16 PHX → 15:19 SFO
    UA 1427 · United · 2h 03m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:20 SFO → 01:10 EWR +1 day
    UA 2626 · United · 5h 50m · 70% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip8h 54mPHX 13:16 to EWR 01:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.