tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Richmond via Dulles: arrives on time 39%

  1. 18:30 BNA → 21:23 IAD
    UA 1460 · United · 1h 53m · 66% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:10 IAD → 23:18 RIC
    UA 4473 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 08m · 74% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 3h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip3h 48mBNA 18:30 to RIC 23:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.