tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Chicago via Dulles: arrives on time 49%

  1. 18:30 BNA → 21:23 IAD
    UA 1460 · United · 1h 53m · 66% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:20 IAD → 23:31 ORD
    UA 1738 · United · 2h 11m · 80% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip5h 01mBNA 18:30 to ORD 23:31, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.