tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Norfolk via Dulles: arrives on time 55%

  1. 18:30 BNA → 21:23 IAD
    UA 1460 · United · 1h 53m · 66% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:35 IAD → 23:44 ORF
    UA 2677 · United · 1h 09m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip4h 14mBNA 18:30 to ORF 23:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.