tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 72%

  1. 07:15 TVC → 07:42 ORD
    UA 1486 · United · 1h 27m · 86% on time, 5.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 03m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 10:45 ORD → 13:59 DCA
    AA 4809 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 14m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 93 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 03m layover.
Arrives on time72%First flight not cancelled (5.1% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip6h 44mTVC 07:15 to DCA 13:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.